The Cambodia

 A closer look at this week’s “leaked” directive reveals a well-rehearsed strategy to consolidate elite criminal control and stave off external pressure. This week, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet ordered local officials and police to dismantle scam compounds across the country. The directive implores provincial governors to address the issue – itself a tacit admission of the widespread nature of the problem and the abject failure of the many past similar “crackdowns.” Within hours, raids were staged, hundreds of foreign nationals were rounded up (Hun Manet today claimed more than 1,000 arrests), and an array of officials declared to state media outlets their resolve to tackle a scourge of human trafficking and cybercrime that has turned Cambodia into a global epicenter of transnational crime. First and foremost, the notion that the prime minister’s order is a “leaked document” is ridiculous. The directive (which merely tells law enforcement to do the things they already should ...

 The 72-year old’s border conflict theatrics and peace prize pandering aim to deflect scrutiny from a regime that can now add child sextortion to its list of malign economic interests. Cambodia’s long-time leader Hun Sen may have entered his supposed retirement back in 2023, but he remains the region’s unrivaled master of grand political theater and cunning sleight of hand. This has rarely been more apparent than in the unfolding of the Cambodia-Thailand border conflict in recent months. Back in June, he took a step that effectively reset the optics of the entire dispute. Cambodia’s opposition, which has hammered Hun Sen over the years for being too close to neighboring foreign powers, was forced to fall in line after he released audio of his call with Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, directly interfering in Thai domestic affairs and putting the nail in the coffin of her floundering premiership. What began as a liability – accusations of softness toward Thailand – was re...

 And What It Means for Washington’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Chinese President Xi Jinping smiles next to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen in Phnom Penh, October 2016.  When Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen claimed a landslide victory in the country’s July 29 elections, most international observers quickly denounced the results as rigged. Given that the election has helped consolidate Hun Sen’s 33-year, increasingly authoritarian hold on power, these accusations are troubling. Even more troubling, however, may be Hun Sen’s recent tilt toward China and the increasing local and regional benefits Beijing is receiving from its relationship with Cambodia. For myriad reasons, Washington has long considered Cambodia a strategic lost cause. Yet the country’s Chinese turn should serve as a warning of what China’s growing economic presence, especially in authoritarian countries, will mean for Southeast Asia and Eurasia more broadly. To respond effectively, the United States and its allies n...

 Counterair Strategy, Targets, and Timing The Counterair Companion: Short Guide to Air Superiority for Joint Force Commanders. Report Title: The Counterair Companion Report Author(s): JAMES M. HOLMES In this chapter, I’ll examine the process of gaining and maintaining air superiority. Understanding the strategy, targets, and forces that make up the counterair process will help joint force commanders build the right mix of counterair forces, competently monitor, and if required, direct the air superiority process. I’ll start with a brief discussion of the elements of the counterair system. Next, I’ll show how counterair strategy relates to the counterair forces’ means to the joint force commander’s ends by considering basic strategic considerations and methods. I’ll then use the results of the strategy discussion to suggest profitable counterair targets and attack timing. Finally, I’ll make some conclusions about the counterair process. The Counterair System Counterair operations em...

 The Principle of Convergence The model shows that a change in war aims (expectations) is necessary for war to end (Fox 1970, 7). War is not so much about twisting arms, but about influencing expectations. How can players systematically and strategically influence each others’ beliefs? The tension between the desire to find a settlement and the desire to give up as little as possible produces inefficiency as opponents learn more about each other. Learning occurs through two channels: a nonstrategic, nonmanipulable, and involuntary one—the battlefield—and a strategic, manipulable, and voluntary one—the negotiation table. The first is imprecise and noisy, and although players can infer something about the distribution of power, it is not sufficient to ensure convergence in beliefs. The strategic channel is more useful because offers, counteroffers, and rejections are all rational decisions that reveal information about the privately known parameter. However, as noted before, some of ...