បទ​វិភាគ៖ មូល​ហេតុ​អ្វី​បាន​ជា​មូលដ្ឋាន​ទ័ព​អាមេរិក​ទំនង​ជា​គ្រោះ​ថ្នាក់​សម្រាប់​កម្ពុជា

Cambodia's geopolitical position in Southeast Asia, marked by its deep economic and military ties with China and ongoing border tensions with Thailand as of August 2025, makes the prospect of hosting US military bases fraught with risks. While recent US-Cambodia engagements—such as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's 2024 visit and INDOPACOM dialogues amid the Thai-Cambodia conflict—suggest potential for cooperation, establishing US bases could exacerbate regional rivalries, economic dependencies, and domestic instability. This analysis draws on current dynamics, including Cambodia's constitutional ban on foreign bases (Article 53) and its balancing act under Prime Minister Hun Manet, to outline the dangers. Critics, including analysts on X, argue that US involvement often destabilizes regions to advance its interests, as seen in claims of engineering the 2025 Thai border war for strategic insertion.

1. Geopolitical Escalation and Regional Tensions

Provocation of China: Cambodia's reliance on China for infrastructure, including the Ream Naval Base upgraded with Chinese funding and inaugurated in April 2025, positions any US base as a direct challenge to Beijing's influence. China views Ream as a "joint logistics and training center," but US officials express concerns it could become a de facto Chinese outpost. Hosting US forces risks retaliatory actions from China, such as halting Belt and Road projects or military exercises like Golden Dragon, potentially drawing Cambodia into the US-China rivalry in the South China Sea and beyond. Analysts note that a US presence could mirror tensions in the Philippines, where EDCA bases have led to confrontations with Chinese vessels, heightening the risk of broader conflict.

Strains with Neighbors: Thailand, a US treaty ally with historical access to American bases and F-16s, sees Cambodian-US ties as provocative amid the 2025 border clashes over Preah Vihear and Gulf resources. X posts allege the US orchestrated the conflict to justify military monitoring, inserting assets into the ceasefire and potentially prolonging instability. Vietnam, wary of encirclement, might escalate disputes over the Mekong or Funan Techo Canal. This could undermine ASEAN unity, turning Cambodia into a proxy battleground.

Broader US-China Competition: As per CSIS analyses, US efforts to counter Chinese ports and influence in the region risk pulling Cambodia into "hybrid warfare" dynamics, where Washington uses sanctions or aid cuts to pressure alignments. Leaked documents from 2024 reveal US operations to influence Cambodian politics, echoing interventions in Hong Kong and Bangladesh, which could destabilize Phnom Penh if bases are seen as part of this strategy.

2. Economic Vulnerabilities and Dependencies

Retaliation from China: China holds 40% of Cambodia's $10 billion debt and is its largest investor, with $17.73 billion in aid from 2000–2021 focused on energy and transport. US bases could prompt Beijing to withhold support, as seen in concerns over Ream becoming a flashpoint. This mirrors how US sanctions over human rights halted aid in 2025, but Chinese loans lack such conditions, making a pivot risky.

Aid and Trade Disruptions: Post-USAID withdrawal in early 2025, Cambodia lost a key US soft power tool, shifting toward pragmatic economic ties. However, bases might invite US demands for reforms, straining relations and exposing Cambodia to trade wars. The 2022 US stance on exports cited corruption and rights abuses, potentially worsening if military presence escalates tensions.

Infrastructure and Development Risks: Projects like the Funan Techo Canal rely on Chinese funding; US involvement could lead to competing influences, delaying growth and increasing debt burdens amid regional inflationary pressures noted by the ADB for 2025.

3. Domestic Sovereignty and Political Backlash

Constitutional and Public Opposition: Cambodia's constitution prohibits foreign bases, and public opinion remains critical of growing foreign influences, including China's at Ream. Framing US access as "rotational" might evade this, but it risks protests similar to those against Chinese robodogs at Ream or historical anti-US sentiment from Vietnam War bombings (up to 150,000 deaths). Opposition leaders like Sam Rainsy could exploit this for nationalist backlash.

Internal Instability: Hun Manet's "smart diplomacy" includes US Navy visits in 2024–2025, but bases could fracture elite consensus, especially with factions tied to China. X discussions highlight fears of sovereignty erosion, with posts warning of US "color revolutions" via leaked ops involving NED and Soros funds.

Human Rights and Governance Pressures: US presence often ties to demands for reforms, as in the halted USAID programs, potentially fueling domestic unrest amid corruption allegations.

4. Historical and Strategic Precedents

Past US Interventions: Cambodia demolished a US-built facility at Ream in 2020, signaling distrust. Historical US bombings and support for regimes during the Khmer Rouge era breed skepticism. Critics argue US bases rarely enhance host security without entangling them in conflicts, as in Thailand's Vietnam War role.

Limited Strategic Value for Cambodia: Ream's shallow ports limit US utility, and analysts question its value for China's power projection, suggesting US bases might serve encirclement goals over Cambodian defense. In the Thai conflict, US monitoring is seen as opportunistic insertion, not genuine aid.

Global Patterns: CSIS notes US strategies in Asia involve countering China via alliances, but this risks "great power competitions" where smaller states like Cambodia suffer collateral damage, as in Ukraine analogies.

5. Current Context: The Thai-Cambodia Conflict as a Warning

As of August 2025, the ceasefire brokered by President Trump holds tenuously, with reports of Thai abductions and displacements. X analysts claim US backing for both sides created the crisis, allowing insertion via monitoring and dialogues, potentially paving the way for bases. This "manufactured" instability underscores how bases could perpetuate conflict rather than resolve it.

In summary, US military bases appear dangerous for Cambodia due to the high risk of alienating China, escalating neighborly disputes, eroding sovereignty, and inviting economic fallout in a region already tense from the Thai border war. While offering potential deterrence against threats like Thailand, the costs—rooted in historical mistrust and current geopolitics—outweigh benefits, potentially trapping Phnom Penh in great power competitions it cannot afford. Cambodia's best path may lie in neutrality, leveraging ad-hoc cooperation without permanent commitments.