ជាតិនិយម និងការឡើងកាន់អំណាចរបស់ Bhumjaithai

 

The Bhumjaithai Party, led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, is capitalizing on nationalist sentiment fueled by the Thai-Cambodian border conflict to increase its political power.

Anutin is strategically using the border dispute to align with the military and position his party as the primary champion of Thai nationalism, aiming to reclaim disputed territories.

This nationalist strategy is weakening the rival Pheu Thai Party and helping Bhumjaithai gain significant support in key electoral regions, particularly the southern northeastern provinces.

The party combines its nationalist platform with its established strategy of aligning with influential local political families ("big houses") to consolidate its base and aim for over 100 MP seats in the next election.

The Thai-Cambodian conflict played a significant role in the downfall of the "Paetongtarn Shinawatra government," with the key issue stemming from a conversation audio clip with Cambodian Senate President "Hun Sen." 

This led to a Constitutional Court ruling and a political shift, resulting in the formation of a minority government with "Anutin Charnvirakul" as Prime Minister.

It is undeniable that during Anutin's four-month term, the issue of the Thai-Cambodian border will remain unavoidable. The five-day conflict ended with no clear victor or loser, followed by a ceasefire agreement that led to other complications.

As the dispute persists, it will serve as a test for the "Anutin government" under the banner of "nationalism." Adjustments to border policies may need to align with social currents.

Analysing the stance of Gen Natthapol Nakpanich, the Defence Minister, who announced the outcome of the Thai-Cambodian General Border Committee (GBC) meeting on September 10, 2025, stating that border checkpoints might be relaxed at certain points. However, the statement faced strong backlash from many parties, forcing him to backtrack swiftly.

Meanwhile, "Anutin" quickly jumped on the bandwagon regarding the border checkpoint issue, further pushing by empowering the "military" to decide on the Thai-Cambodian border policy. This move strategically aligns him with the military, using it as a platform to score points on "nationalism."

It must be acknowledged that the battleground along the Thai-Cambodian border, from the southern northeastern region down to the southern provinces, has reduced political gains for the "Pheu Thai Party." The surge in nationalist sentiment has been high, but no political party has been able to fully capitalise on it.

However, the "Bhumjaithai Party" stands a better chance of winning nationalist support due to its existing conservative stance. The party is keen to rise and claim the top position among conservative parties.

Especially since the "Bhumjaithai Party" distanced itself from the "Paetongtarn-led coalition" after the controversial "Hun Sen" conversation audio clip, it has gained political capital.

As the party shifts to power, this marks a test for whether "Anutin and Bhumjaithai" can establish themselves as the top conservative party. Therefore, the Thai-Cambodian border policy will play a crucial role in the 2025 election.

Clearing the Conflict to Gain Political Points

Attention must be given to the issue of reclaiming Thai territory, particularly in the area of Ban Nong Ya Kaeo, Khok Sung District, Sa Kaeo Province. Parinya Phothisat, the Governor of Sa Kaeo, has sent a letter to Oum Reatrey, the Governor of Banteay Meanchey Province, Cambodia, urging the evacuation of the encroaching population by October 10. This action comes ahead of Thai authorities moving in to clear the area.

Another point of contention is the casino construction at the Thai-Cambodian border in Ta-Sen, Mueang District, Trat Province, which is encroaching on Thai territory. There have been calls to demolish these structures.

At the same time, there is speculation that the "government and military" are focusing on reclaiming the Ta Kwai temple in Phanom Dong Rak, Surin Province. This temple was previously seized by Cambodian soldiers during an earlier clash, before the ceasefire.

If "Anutin and the military" successfully reclaim Thai land, including the Ta Kwai temple and the battlefield areas, the political capital gained from the "nationalist" sentiment will boost the "Bhumjaithai Party." This could raise Anutin’s political standing significantly.

Originally, the "Bhumjaithai Party" had positioned itself as a "big house" party (big local political family) without much momentum from public sentiment. However, by aligning with the "nationalism" wave and leveraging its already strong base, the party could see its number of MPs surge past 100.

Looking at key strategic areas, it is evident that in the southern northeastern provinces, the "Pheu Thai Party" has lost support while "Bhumjaithai" has seen its popularity rise significantly.

Scooping Up MP Seats in Southern Northeastern Provinces

Ubon Ratchathani: Once a stronghold for the "red shirt" (Pheu Thai) camp, with a well-established network, Ubon Ratchathani saw only 4 seats secured by the faction in the 2023 election. The remaining seats were claimed by Bhumjaithai (2 seats), Thai Ruam Palang (2 seats), Thai Sang Thai Party (1 seat), and the Democrat Party (1 seat).

Si Sa Ket: Bhumjaithai holds strong connections with the influential "Trisoranakul" family, who dominate the local electoral base. In the 2023 election, the victory of "Wichit Trisoranakul" in the provincial council election was decisive, alongside the decline of the red shirt camp, positioning Bhumjaithai to potentially sweep the province's MP seats.

Surin: Known as a key target for headmaster Newin Chidchob, the true leader of the Party, Surin was a tight contest between the "blue camp" and the "red camp" in 2023. Bhumjaithai took 4 seats, while Pheu Thai secured 3. Recently, there has been speculation regarding "Manit Sangphum," a Surin MP, who may switch sides, with high chances of leaving the red camp.

Buri Ram: The stronghold of "Newin" and his "blue camp" network, Buri Ram has a high likelihood of Bhumjaithai securing all 10 MP seats, similar to the 2023 election results.

Nakhon Ratchasima: In the 2023 election, Pheu Thai secured 12 seats, while the People’s Party claimed 3, with Bhumjaithai only winning 1. While Pheu Thai's base in Nakhon Ratchasima remains strong, the ongoing Thailand-Cambodia conflict has weakened the red camp's standing. This opens a significant opportunity for the "blue camp" to make inroads.

Importantly, attention should be given to Weerasak Wangsupakijkosol, a powerful figure with influence in Nakhon Ratchasima. The question remains whether he will continue his affiliation with Pheu Thai or establish his own base by shifting support to the Thai Ruam Palang, his backup party.

Strongholds in Central Thailand

In Central Thailand, the "Bhumjaithai Party" has established a strong network through influential "big houses." Notable examples include the "Thaised" family in Uthai Thani, the "Prissananantakul" family in Ang Thong, and the "Phanchareonworakul" family in Ayutthaya, among others. Additionally, several other "big houses" in Central Thailand are reportedly preparing to join the "blue party."

With the rising tide of "nationalism," which may transfer from the military to the "blue party," these "big houses" are expected to expand their influence further. Competing against the "People's Party" with just ammunition might not be enough; it's essential to tap into the current political wave as well.

Expanding the Southern Base with Big Houses Joining In

The southern region has long been a stronghold for "conservatives," with nationalism running deep in the hearts of the local people. This explains why Akanat Promphan chose to part ways with the United Thai Nation Party and join Bhumjaithai. After assessing the political trend, it became clear that the "blue party" was gaining momentum in the region.

Likewise, the Democrat Party's big houses" in the southern provinces, such as the "Bunyamanee" family in Songkhla and the "Lohsathapornpipit" family in Trang, are highly likely to shift their allegiance to the "Bhumjaithai Party."

Given the ongoing Thai-Cambodia conflict, it is expected to play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2025 election. "Anutin and Bhumjaithai" will need to seize the opportunity to align the "nationalist" wave with the "big houses" politics, propelling the "Bhumjaithai Party" to secure over 100 MP seats for the first time.

Thailand Fake