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 Analysts' Perspectives: Economic Risks of Cambodia's Border Dispute with Thailand

As of August 19, 2025, the ongoing border dispute between Cambodia and Thailand—escalating with skirmishes in May, airstrikes in July, and a shaky ceasefire—has drawn significant concern from analysts regarding its economic implications for Cambodia. Drawing from reports by Mekong Strategic Capital, EuroCham Cambodia, and other experts, the conflict poses short-term risks to GDP growth, trade, tourism, remittances, and investment. While Cambodia's economy shows resilience through low debt and diversification potential, prolonged tensions could exacerbate vulnerabilities in an already trade-dependent nation. Below is a synthesized analysis based on recent assessments.

Overview of the Dispute's Economic Context

The dispute centers on historical border claims, including areas near the Preah Vihear temple, and has led to border closures, trade restrictions, and nationalist sentiments disrupting cross-border flows. Analysts from Mekong Strategic Capital highlight that Cambodia's heavy reliance on Thailand—as a top trade partner, tourism source, and employer for migrant workers—amplifies these risks. In July 2025 alone, Cambodia's imports from Thailand plummeted 44%, prompting calls for greater economic self-reliance. Broader regional spillovers, including stock market declines and investment hesitancy, underscore Southeast Asia's interconnected vulnerabilities.

Key Economic Risks Identified by Analysts

Analysts emphasize asymmetric impacts, with Cambodia bearing the brunt due to its smaller economy and dependence on Thailand. Risks are categorized as follows:

1.Trade Disruptions and Imbalances:

Cambodia's import bans on Thai goods (e.g., vegetables, fruits, telecom, energy) have created short-term shortages, but analysts note limited long-term harm due to domestic production and alternatives like Vietnam. However, exports such as cassava ($130 million in the first seven months of 2025) are at risk if land routes remain restricted, potentially forcing costly rerouting via Laos or sea.

Cross-border trade demand for Thai products has fallen 50% amid soured sentiment, increasing logistics costs and reducing profits for Cambodian firms. Bunthan Suy, Chairperson of EuroCham’s Transport & Logistics Committee, warns: “This underscores the need to diversify and enhance our trade routes, improve the efficiency of our logistics processes, streamline cross-border procedures, and expand the capacity of strategic gateways.”

2.Tourism Sector Vulnerabilities:

Tourism, contributing nearly 10% to Cambodia's GDP, has been hit hardest, with Thailand as the top source market (2.15 million arrivals in 2024). Angkor Wat ticket sales dropped 20% recently, and Thai visitor numbers fell 92.32% in July 2025, threatening 510,000 jobs in Siem Reap alone.

Catherine Germier-Hamel, Chairperson of EuroCham’s Tourism & Hospitality Committee, notes: “Border closures, loss of traveller confidence, mounting cancellations, and official travel advisories have hit micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises the hardest.” A EuroCham survey revealed 77% of businesses faced cancellations, 63% saw revenue drops, and 55% reported fewer Thai tourists. Overall, tourism spending could decline by 10%, with multiplier effects equating to a 2% GDP loss.

3.Remittances and Labor Market Shocks:

Approximately 750,000 Cambodian workers have returned from Thailand, leading to a projected 25% drop in remittances ($375 million lost, or 1.5% of GDP). With 1.2 million migrants in Thailand sending $1 billion annually, further returns could spike unemployment and strain social services.

Analysts warn of risks to 120,000 displaced families facing income loss and debt, potentially fueling economic dissatisfaction.

Investment and Supply Chain Risks:

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows may slow amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, disrupting supply chains in manufacturing and agribusiness. Emerald Am, Chairperson of EuroCham’s Garment & Manufacturing Committee, advocates for reforms like rooftop solar policies to mitigate costs: “By accelerating the development of a robust rooftop solar framework, Cambodia can help manufacturers mitigate risks from supply interruptions while lowering operational costs and emissions.”

Chan SereiRatha, Vice-Chairperson of the Agribusiness Committee, stresses enhancing food safety and market competitiveness to reduce reliance on Thai imports.

Quantitative Impacts: A Summary Table

Analysts provide the following estimates for Cambodia's economic risks in 2025:

Sector :

GDP Growth  Slowdown to 3% (from 5%) Overall Source/Analyst Mekong Strategic Capital

• -Tourism Projected Impact  10-20% decline in sales/spending; 92.32% drop in Thai visitors (July) GDP ~2% loss Source/Analyst  EuroCham, Khmer Times

• -Remittances Projected Impact 25% fall ($375M lost) GDP 1.5% loss Source/Analyst Mekong Strategic Capital

• -Trade Projected Impact 44% import drop (July); 50% demand reduction for Thai goods Source/Analyst   Kiripost, EuroCham

• -Investment/FDI : Projected Impact Slowdown in inflows and supply chains  GDP Part of 3%+ cut  Source/Analyst  Mekong Strategic Capital

Mitigation Strategies and Long-Term Outlook

Despite these risks, analysts see opportunities for resilience. Mekong Strategic Capital forecasts a rebound from 2027, buoyed by low government debt (27% of GDP), fiscal discipline, and reforms in digital customs, logistics, and renewable energy. Recommendations include diversifying trade routes, boosting domestic agri-processing, and targeted stimulus to support affected sectors. If resolved diplomatically—potentially via ASEAN mediation—the conflict could catalyze economic self-reliance, turning crisis into opportunity.

In summary, while the dispute risks shaving over 3% off Cambodia's GDP in the short term through interconnected hits to tourism, trade, and remittances, analysts like those at Mekong Strategic Capital and EuroCham emphasize proactive reforms to safeguard long-term growth. Continued escalation could deepen these effects, but Cambodia's structural strengths offer a path to recovery.