បទ​វិភាគ៖ ហេតុផល​ដែល​អាមេរិក​មិន​អាច​បង្កើត​មូលដ្ឋាន​យោធា​នៅ​កម្ពុជា

 Analysis: Reasons Why the US Cannot Establish a Military Base in Cambodia



Cambodia's geopolitical landscape, as of August 2025, remains shaped by its constitutional constraints, deep economic ties with China, and a history of neutrality amid regional rivalries. Despite recent warming in US-Cambodia relations—such as resumed military dialogues and US monitoring of the Thai-Cambodia border ceasefire—the establishment of a permanent US military base is effectively barred. This stems from legal prohibitions, strategic dependencies, and potential backlash, even as Cambodia navigates the ongoing border conflict with Thailand, a US ally. Below is a detailed analysis drawing on current frameworks and events.


1. Constitutional and Legal Barriers


Explicit Prohibition in the Constitution: Article 53 of Cambodia's 1993 Constitution (revised 2008) states that "The Kingdom of Cambodia shall not permit any foreign military base on its territory and shall not have its own military base abroad, except within the framework of a United Nations request." This clause, rooted in the 1991 Paris Peace Agreements ending the Cambodian civil war, enforces permanent neutrality and has been invoked repeatedly by leaders to reject foreign bases. For instance, Prime Minister Hun Manet reaffirmed this in April 2025 during the Ream Naval Base ceremony, emphasizing adherence to the constitution despite upgrades funded by China.


No Loopholes for Permanent Presence: While Cambodia allows temporary or rotational access (e.g., joint exercises or port visits), any permanent US base would require a constitutional amendment—a politically fraught process amid opposition scrutiny. Defense Minister Tea Banh stated in 2022 that "no foreign military base would be allowed in the country as it goes against its Constitution," a position echoed in 2023 and 2024 denials of Chinese exclusivity at Ream. Extending this to the US would violate the same rule, as noted in analyses of Cambodia's defense posture.


International Agreements Reinforcing Neutrality: The Paris Accords prohibit foreign military interference, and Cambodia's ASEAN membership promotes non-alignment. Allowing a US base could breach these, inviting legal challenges from domestic courts or international bodies like the UN.


2. Geopolitical Dependencies and Alliances


Heavy Reliance on China: China holds about 40% of Cambodia's $10 billion external debt and has invested heavily in infrastructure, including the Ream Naval Base upgrades completed in 2025. Cambodian officials describe Ream as a "joint logistics center" open to all navies, but satellite imagery and reports suggest de facto Chinese priority access, with warships docked for months. Granting the US a base would risk alienating Beijing, potentially leading to economic retaliation—such as halting Belt and Road Initiative projects like the Funan Techo Canal. As one analysis notes, "geographical limitations, a lack of strategic value, and domestic political constraints" hinder shifts away from China.



Balancing Act Under Hun Manet: Since taking office in 2023, West Point-educated Prime Minister Hun Manet has pursued "smart diplomacy," including US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's 2024 visit and INDOPACOM dialogues in July 2025 amid the Thai border war. However, this has manifested in non-permanent engagements, like US Navy visits to Sihanoukville in December 2024 and monitoring the August 2025 ceasefire, rather than bases. Cambodia's invitation for US oversight of the border uses American intelligence assets without establishing infrastructure, preserving ties with China.



Regional Rivalries and US-China Competition: Southeast Asia's dynamics, including the South China Sea disputes, make a US base provocative. Thailand, a US treaty ally hosting American forces historically, views Cambodian-US military convergence as a threat during the 2025 conflict over Preah Vihear and Gulf resources. Vietnam and other ASEAN states oppose escalations that could draw in superpowers, aligning with Cambodia's neutrality stance.



3. Historical and Domestic Challenges



Strained US-Cambodia Relations: Decades of mistrust stem from US bombings during the Vietnam War (1965–1973), which killed up to 150,000 Cambodians and fueled the Khmer Rouge rise. Recent tensions include US sanctions over human rights and halted aid in 2025 during the Thai conflict. Opposition figures like Sam Rainsy criticize foreign influences, and public sentiment—evident in X discussions—fears sovereignty loss, with posts warning that US bases could "destabilize" the region.



Domestic Political Risks: Any move toward a US base could spark protests or elite infighting, as seen with criticisms of Chinese Ream access. Hun Manet's government prioritizes stability, and allowing US permanence might undermine his legitimacy, especially post-2025 elections. Economic incentives from China (e.g., $120 million in annual aid equivalents) outweigh US offers, which are conditional on reforms.


Lack of Mutual Strategic Incentive: The US focuses on "pivoting to Asia" but prioritizes allies like the Philippines or Thailand for bases. Cambodia offers limited value—its ports are shallow, and Ream lacks deep-water capabilities for major US assets. Amid the Thai-Cambodia clash, US involvement is opportunistic (e.g., brokering talks via President Trump), but not base-oriented, as Cambodia lacks the "material and logistical wherewithal" for such commitments.


4. Potential Risks and Broader Implications


Escalation of Tensions: A US base could provoke China, leading to hybrid responses like cyber operations or economic pressure, exacerbating the US-China rivalry. X analysts note Cambodia's "geography" as its only leverage, but basing rights would invite Thai retaliation, prolonging the border war.


Feasibility in Current Context: As of August 2025, with the Thai ceasefire holding tenuously and US monitoring in place, Cambodia gains from ad-hoc cooperation without bases. Inviting permanent US presence risks violating the constitution, alienating China, and facing domestic backlash—making it unviable.


In summary, the US cannot establish a military base in Cambodia due to ironclad constitutional bans, entrenched Chinese influence, historical grievances, and regional stability concerns. While tactical engagements persist, any shift toward permanence would demand improbable legal and diplomatic overhauls, likely intensifying conflicts rather than resolving them.



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