ទិដ្ឋភាពទូទៅនៃវិស័យការពារជាតិ និងសន្តិសុខជាតិរបស់កម្ពុជា

 Overview of Cambodia's Defense and National Security

Cambodia's defense and national security framework is shaped by its post-conflict history, including decades of civil war ending in the 1990s, and its strategic position in Southeast Asia. The Royal Cambodian Armed Forces (RCAF) prioritize territorial integrity, internal stability, and regional cooperation, with a focus on modernization amid limited resources. Cambodia maintains a neutral foreign policy in theory, but in practice, it has deepened ties with China for military and economic support, while relations with the United States remain strained due to concerns over governance and human rights. Key institutions include the Ministry of National Defense, which oversees a military of approximately 125,000 active personnel, emphasizing ground forces with growing naval and air capabilities. The 2022 National Defence Policy highlights human resource development, enhanced training, and resilience against evolving threats, though specific details on budgeting remain opaque.

Cambodia's security environment is influenced by ASEAN membership, which promotes dialogue on regional issues, but domestic priorities like economic growth—aiming for upper-middle-income status by 2030 and high-income by 2050—tie directly to stability. Transnational challenges, such as human trafficking, illicit trade, and maritime crimes, are viewed as critical to national security, with maritime border security emphasized to combat terrorism and support the blue economy.

Current Security Challenges

Cambodia faces a mix of internal, regional, and geopolitical threats:

Internal Challenges: Political consolidation under the Cambodian People's Party (CPP) has ensured stability but raised concerns about democratic backsliding, including opposition suppression and media restrictions. This has led to periodic unrest and reliance on the military for domestic control, as seen in responses to election disputes. Economic dependence on foreign aid exacerbates vulnerabilities, with corruption and human rights issues complicating international partnerships.

Regional Disputes: Border tensions with neighbors remain a flashpoint. In July 2025, clashes with Thailand escalated over landmine incidents and disputed areas like the Preah Vihear temple and the Emerald Triangle, resulting in Thai airstrikes, casualties, and diplomatic expulsions. A ceasefire was reached on July 28, 2025, but underlying issues, including overlapping claims in the Gulf of Thailand, persist. Maritime disputes with Vietnam over illegal fishing and territorial waters add strain, though less militarized. Cambodia's stance on the South China Sea—often aligning with China—has strained ASEAN unity.

Geopolitical Rivalries: Cambodia's deepening alignment with China, including over 93% of military imports from 2018–2023 and upgrades to Ream Naval Base, is seen by the US as a strategic threat. China provides "no-strings-attached" aid, modernizing facilities like docks and radar at Ream, potentially for intelligence purposes, while the US links cooperation to democratic reforms. This rivalry manifests in suspended joint exercises and sanctions.

The following table summarizes key threats and responses:

Threat Category

Internal Political Instability CPP dominance, opposition marginalization Military crackdowns, focus on stability over reforms

Border Disputes Thailand (Preah Vihear, Gulf claims), Vietnam (maritime incursions) Diplomatic ceasefires, naval modernization

Transnational Crimes Human trafficking, illegal fishing, terrorism Enhanced maritime governance, international cooperation

Great Power Influence China-US competition Balancing aid, neutral rhetoric

Defense Strategies and Capabilities

Cambodia's strategies emphasize "loose alignment" to avoid overdependence on any power, prioritizing sovereignty and multilateralism through ASEAN. Military modernization includes acquiring Chinese corvettes, radar systems, and training enhancements, funded largely by Beijing. The RCAF focuses on peacekeeping contributions (e.g., UN missions) to build international reputation and capabilities. Budget constraints limit independent growth, with emphasis on human capital development to address non-traditional threats like climate change and cyber risks.

Historical lessons from military engagements underscore restraint and boldness in defense, informing a pragmatic approach. US engagement could expand in counterterrorism and peacekeeping, but requires navigating governance differences.

Long-Term Outlook (2030–2050)

Cambodia's long-term security outlook is cautiously optimistic but fraught with risks, projecting sustained stability if it balances great power influences and resolves regional tensions. By 2030, economic goals could bolster defense spending, enabling a more capable navy and air force, particularly if Ream upgrades enhance maritime awareness and deter incursions. However, overreliance on China risks entrenching influence, potentially drawing Cambodia into broader US-China rivalries, including proxy dynamics in the South China Sea.

Regionally, unresolved border disputes with Thailand and Vietnam could recur, especially amid climate-induced resource strains, but ASEAN mediation offers pathways for resolution. Internal stability may improve with generational leadership shifts, potentially easing US ties and diversifying partnerships with Australia or Japan. By 2050, Cambodia could emerge as a regional mediator if it leverages its neutral stance, but failure to address democratic concerns might isolate it from Western aid, hindering growth.

Risks include escalation of local conflicts into geopolitical proxies, economic disruptions from tariffs or sanctions (e.g., US policies impacting growth to 4.9% in 2025), and emerging threats like cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Positive scenarios involve strengthened labor protections and international cooperation for a resilient economy tied to security. Overall, a "loose alignment" strategy, focusing on sovereignty and multilateralism, is recommended for long-term resilience.